美元貶值賴帳估算，我們每年至少損失1萬億元　　

通常根據(jù)美國(guó)物價(jià)指數(shù)計(jì)算通貨膨脹率，從而估算美元購(gòu)買力變化。根據(jù)購(gòu)買力變化，可以估算我們儲(chǔ)存2萬億美元的損失。美國(guó)官方根據(jù)市場(chǎng)調(diào)查的物價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布物價(jià)指數(shù)（附錄3），計(jì)算通貨膨脹率。美國(guó)官方調(diào)查物價(jià)指數(shù)，是通過個(gè)人和電話調(diào)查87個(gè)地區(qū)5萬個(gè)房屋，23000個(gè)商店的市場(chǎng)物價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)，加上人口權(quán)重計(jì)算得到的物價(jià)指數(shù)，主要反應(yīng)老百姓在美國(guó)居住生活的物價(jià)變化。二戰(zhàn)后，美國(guó)通貨膨脹率最高是1982年，達(dá)到13％，最近幾年約3％。但是，我們使用美元購(gòu)買的商品，明顯與居民不同。　　

以美元指數(shù)來反應(yīng)我們儲(chǔ)存的美元購(gòu)買力，比美國(guó)通貨膨脹率要好一些，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)指數(shù)反應(yīng)了美元在國(guó)際貿(mào)易方面的購(gòu)買力變化。美元指數(shù)是通過美元與6種國(guó)際主要貨幣的匯率的幾何加權(quán)平均值。這6種貨幣是歐元、日元、英鎊、加拿大元、瑞典克郎、瑞士法郎，其中歐元的權(quán)重最大，高達(dá)57.6%?，F(xiàn)代西方國(guó)家通常都存在通貨膨脹，由于各國(guó)通貨膨脹率通常都大于0，美元購(gòu)買力下降幅度應(yīng)大于美元指數(shù)下降的幅度。根據(jù)程實(shí)博士2008年3月14日發(fā)表在北京青年報(bào)上文章，美元指數(shù)從2001年7月6日的121.02到2008年3月7日的72.462，7年不到美元貶值了40％”，相當(dāng)于美元平均每年至少貶值8%以上。　　

準(zhǔn)確反映我國(guó)儲(chǔ)存的美元購(gòu)買力變化應(yīng)是中國(guó)海關(guān)進(jìn)口商品價(jià)格變化。我們國(guó)家似乎才開始做，只有2006年以后的進(jìn)口商品價(jià)格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)，參見：　　

http://www.customs.gov.cn/Portals/0/jcyj/12月份我國(guó)進(jìn)口商品價(jià)格大幅下跌.doc　　

從這個(gè)資料來看，在金融危機(jī)之前，我們的美元購(gòu)買力年下降率達(dá)到了8％水平。但是，這兩年我們貿(mào)易順差，我們使用的美元是當(dāng)時(shí)獲得的，我們儲(chǔ)存的美元的購(gòu)買力，需要到貿(mào)易逆差，我們實(shí)際使用以前的美元進(jìn)口商品時(shí)，其價(jià)格與我們獲得美元時(shí)進(jìn)口商品價(jià)格比較，才能得到實(shí)際結(jié)果。如果一直貿(mào)易順差，沒有機(jī)會(huì)使用美元，我們儲(chǔ)存的美元等同廢紙。　　

      我們儲(chǔ)存2萬億美元，按照美元購(gòu)買力下降8％計(jì)算，等于每年損失1600億美元，按照現(xiàn)在的1美元兌人民幣6.9元匯率計(jì)算，超過1萬億人民幣。政府將事業(yè)單位人員退休推向市場(chǎng)，目的僅僅是為了減少支出幾百億的退休金，卻不去改變愚蠢的政策，儲(chǔ)存2萬億美元外匯儲(chǔ)備，免費(fèi)每年送給美國(guó)人1萬億人民幣。此外，還繼續(xù)增加美元，等于送給美國(guó)人更多的財(cái)富。

　 這里僅計(jì)算了美元貶值損失，還有很多其他損失，參見：http://www.chinavalue.net/Article/Archive/2006/11/14/48633.html

      如何使用美元減少外匯儲(chǔ)備，請(qǐng)參見：給溫總理建議，我們應(yīng)如何使用外匯 　　

http://www.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=216287　　

附錄　　

1 美國(guó)準(zhǔn)備賴帳了，中國(guó)會(huì)損失1萬億美元？http://www.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=209950　　

2林毅夫，應(yīng)為中國(guó)外匯損失負(fù)責(zé)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家 http://www.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=224073　　

3 中國(guó)政府應(yīng)利用經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)賺取1萬億美元 http://www.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=222498　　

4：見http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_03182009.htm　　

Brief Explanation of the CPI

      The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households.  The

 Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:  (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers

 households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise

 approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All

 Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI- U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-

 employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.

      The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,

 transportation fares, charges for doctors" and dentists" services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.

 Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about

 50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-

 department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other

 types of stores and service establishments.  All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index.  Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in  the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas . Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or  telephone calls of the Bureau"s trained representatives.

      In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each  location are averaged together with weights, which represent their

 importance in the spending of the appropriate population group.  Local

 data are then combined to obtain a 　　U.S.　　 city average.  For the CPI-U and

 CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of

 the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size

 classes, and for 27 local areas.  Area indexes do not measure differences

 in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change

 in prices for each area since the base period.  For the C-CPI-U data are

 issued only at the national level.  It is important to note that the CPI-U

 and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in  preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.

      The index measures price change from a designed reference date.  For  the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The  reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.

 An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown

 as 116.5.  This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows:  the

 price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has  risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.

      For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at

 http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis

 Section on (202) 691-7000.

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